Unusual epidemic events: a new method of early orientation and differentiation between natural and deliberate epidemics.

Authors:
Address: Military Academy, Belgrade, Serbia.
Journal:

Publication:

abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To develop a model for quick and accurate evaluation of Unusual epidemic events (UEE), based on the original model of bioterrorism risk assessment.

methodS:

A new scoring system was developed for quick differentiation between a biological attack and other epidemics, using eight qualitative and six quantitative indicators.

RESULTS:

A new scoring system was applied to three UEEs: (1) a spontaneous outbreak of a new or re-emerging disease ('swine flu'); (2) a spontaneous outbreak following accidental release of a pathogen (Sverdlovsk anthrax); and (3) a spontaneous natural outbreak of a known endemic disease that may mimic bioterrorism or biowarfare (Kosovo tularaemia). The disease agent was found to be the most important and the most informative UEE component of the scoring system.

CONCLUSIONS:

This new scoring system may be useful for public health institutions and federal civil and military officials responsible for bio-attack investigations.

Related Articles
Review Discernment between deliberate and natural infectious disease outbreaks.
Epidemiol Infect. 2007
Review Discernment between deliberate and natural infectious disease outbreaks.
Dembek ZF, Kortepeter MG, Pavlin JA. Epidemiol Infect. 2007 Apr; 135(3):353-71. Epub 2006 Aug 8.
A new model of bioterrorism risk assessment.
Biosecur Bioterror. 2009
A new model of bioterrorism risk assessment.
Radosavljevic V, Belojevic G. Biosecur Bioterror. 2009 Dec; 7(4):443-51.
Review A procedure for differentiating between the intentional release of biological warfare agents and natural outbreaks of disease: its use in analyzing the tularemia outbreak in Kosovo in 1999 and 2000.
Clin Microbiol Infect. 2002
Review A procedure for differentiating between the intentional release of biological warfare agents and natural outbreaks of disease: its use in analyzing the tularemia outbreak in Kosovo in 1999 and 2000.
Grunow R, Finke EJ. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2002 Aug; 8(8):510-21.
The statistical analysis of truncated data: application to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak.
Biostatistics. 2001
The statistical analysis of truncated data: application to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak.
Brookmeyer R, Blades N, Hugh-Jones M, Henderson DA. Biostatistics. 2001 Jun; 2(2):233-47.
Development of a risk-priority score for category A bioterrorism agents as an aid for public health policy.
Mil Med. 2006
Development of a risk-priority score for category A bioterrorism agents as an aid for public health policy.
MacIntyre CR, Seccull A, Lane JM, Plant A. Mil Med. 2006 Jul; 171(7):589-94.

To top • Home

TraveldoctorOnline 2001 • Disclaimer • webmaster

The contents within traveldoctoronline are presented only for informational purposes and cannot substitute for professional health care or any other medical treatment.All users of this website with health problems should be oblige always to consult their medical doctor before starting any treatment.